非常规突发事件危害性评估和态势监测模型

非常规突发事件危害性评估和态势监测模型 Harmfulness Assessment and Trend Monitoring Model in Unconventional Emergency 胡俊 HU Jun1 1 2 first-author 陆晴漪 LU Qingyi3 3 陈磊 CHEN Lei4 4 王云华 WANG Yunhua1 1 5 陈世鸿 CHEN Shihong1 1 武汉大学计算机学院 武汉大学计算机学院 Management Office,Wuhan Government Affairs Service Center Management Office,Wuhan Government Affairs Service Center 武汉市政务服务中心管理办公室 武汉市政务服务中心管理办公室 School of Computer,Wuhan University School of Computer,Wuhan University 武汉理工大学艺术与设计学院 武汉理工大学艺术与设计学院 College of Art and Design,Wuhan University of Technology College of Art and Design,Wuhan University of Technology 武汉大学国家多媒体软件工程技术研究中心 武汉大学国家多媒体软件工程技术研究中心 National Engineering Research Center for Multimedia Software,Wuhan University National Engineering Research Center for Multimedia Software,Wuhan University 武汉理工大学计算机科学与技术学院 武汉理工大学计算机科学与技术学院 School of Computer Science and Technology,Wuhan University of Technology School of Computer Science and Technology,Wuhan University of Technology 在非常规突发事件应急管理过程中,实时把握事件危害性的变化状况和演化态势无疑有助于事件的决策与处置.本文提出了一种可计算的事件态势监测模型ESMM.该模型依据事件爆发和处置/恢复过程中的实时情景,抽取与事件危害性相关的信息,通过实时评估事件处置前后的危害性变化,以及与决策目标间的差异判断事件的演化态势.实验表明ESMM是实时评估事件危害性变化和态势监测的可操作性模型. In the process of responding to the unconventional emergency,to monitor the real-time harmfulness of the event and its evolution can undoubtedly enhance government’s capacity of decision-making and management.Due to this notion,a situation evolution monitoring model ESMM which can be calculated is put forward in the paper.Based on the real-time scenario of the outbreaking,managing and recovering of the event,ESMM extracts the information related to harmfulness and makes a real-time assessment of the harmfulness change before and after the treatment,thus estimating the trend evolution in terms of the difference between the decision-making goals and the actuality.The experimental results obtained in the paper shows that ESMM is an operational model to evaluate the harmfulness and its evolution of the event. 非常规突发事件 情景信息池 事件危害性 态势监测 unconventional emergency scenario information pool event harmfulness trend monitoring 10.14188/j.1671-8836.2013.04.015 TP274 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目（3101003） 2013-04-01 2021-04-01 4 59