水位流量曲线估计中的异方差性分析——以西江上游为例

水位流量曲线估计中的异方差性分析——以西江上游为例 Heteroscedasticity Analysis of Stage-Discharge Rating Curves——A Case of the West River Basin Upsteam 顾西辉 GU Xihui 1 2 first-author 张强 ZHANG Qiang 1 2 江涛 JIANG Tao 1 2 中山大学水资源与环境系 中山大学水资源与环境系 Department of Water Resources and Environment,SunYat-sen University Department of Water Resources and Environment,SunYat-sen University 中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室 中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室 Guangdong University Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Security in South China,Sun Yat-sen University Guangdong University Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Security in South China,Sun Yat-sen University 基于珠江水系干流之一的西江上游14个水文测站水位流量数据,应用非线性最小二乘法（NLS）和异方差最大似然估计法（HMLE）分别绘制每个测站水位流量曲线标准残差图.结果表明:14个水文测站中有5个测站对NLS是适用的,9个测站对NLS不适用;而对于HMLE法,则有11个测站是适用的,仅3个测站不适用.因此,对比NLS法,HMLE法大大提高了对水位流量曲线的适用性. Based on the statistics of the streamflow series of 14hydrological stations located on the West River basin upstream,a tributary of the Pearl River,we drew standard residual plots for each station.The results indicate that the non-linear least square method（NLS）performs well on 5stations while the others are not.Whereas,heteroscedastic maximum likelihood estimation（HMLE）performs well on 11stations while only 3stations are not.As a result,HMLE could be a good approach to fit the stage-discharge curves. 水位流量曲线 异方差性 非线性最小二乘法（NLS） 异方差最大似然估计（HMLE） stage-discharge curve heteroscedasticity non-linear least square method（NLS） heteroscedastic maximum likelihood estimation（HMLE） 10.14188/j.1671-8836.2014.01.013 P333 国家自然科学基金（41071020;50839005）;新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目 2014-01-01 2021-04-01 1 60