1961～2005年淮河流域降水时空演变特征分析

1961～2005年淮河流域降水时空演变特征分析 Changing Properties of Precipitation Structure during 1961-2005 across the Huaihe Basin 郑泳杰 ZHENG Yongjie 1 2 3 first-author 张强 ZHANG Qiang 1 2 3 陈晓宏 CHEN Xiaohong 1 2 3 中山大学水资源与环境系 中山大学水资源与环境系 Department of Water Resources and Environment,Sun Yat-sen University Department of Water Resources and Environment,Sun Yat-sen University 中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室 中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute,Sun Yat-sen University Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute,Sun Yat-sen University 中山大学广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室 中山大学广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室 School of Geography and Planning,Guangdong key laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-Simulation,Sun Yat-sen University School of Geography and Planning,Guangdong key laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-Simulation,Sun Yat-sen University 基于1961 2 005年淮河流域36个站点的降水时间序列资料,通过定义年降水总量（ATP）、年降水总天数（ATD）、年平均降水强度（ATI）、年平均降水天数（WPA）等降水指标,利用改进的Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法对淮河流域降水时间序列的变化趋势进行检验,从多个方面对淮河流域降水的时空变化进行分析.研究结果表明:1)在1961 2 005年间淮河流域年降水总天数呈显著下降趋势,而降水总量呈轻微下降趋势,从而导致淮河流域降水强度上升,这一变化在流域西北部、及上游地区表现最为显著;2)各不同历时降水的发生率和贡献率年际变化数据显示,淮河流域降水历时缩短,而短历时降水事件对总降水量贡献率增大,说明在气候变化影响下,淮河流域水循环加剧,降水过程集中趋势明显,进一步增加了淮河流域短历时洪水及长历时干旱灾害风险. Daily precipitation data covering 1961-2005 from 36stations across the Huaihe basin are analyzed to investigate properties of precipitation by defining several precipitation indices such as:annual total precipitation amount,annual total rainy days,annual mean precipitation intensity and annual mean rainy days.Trends of the above rainfall indices are analyzed using the modified Mann-Kendall trend test method（MMK）.Results indicate that the Huaihe Basin is dominated by decreasing annual total rainy days,while annual total precipitation amount are slightly decreasing during 1961-2005.These two factors result in increasing precipitation intensity in the Huaihe Basin,especially in the northwest part and the upstream area of the Huaihe Basin.As for the occurrence and fractional contribution of different wet periods,the periods of consecutive wet days are shortening.The fractional contribution of shorter consecutive wet days is increasing,which implies increasing precipitation concentration and intensifying precipitation processes,and may further enhances the risks of flash floods and long-lasting drought episodes within the Huaihe Basin. 淮河流域 水文循环 Mann-Kendall法 降水结构 Huaihe Basin hydrologic cycle Mann-Kendall method precipitation structure 10.14188/j.1671-8836.2015.03.010 P333.1 国家杰出青年科学基金项目（51425903）;香港特别行政区研究资助局项目（CUHK441313） 2015-03-01 2021-03-31 3 61